History betrays CCM, Why we prophesize

Two things that seemed almost impossible and improbable at the beginning of this year are increasingly becoming possible and probable as the year closes. One was that former PM Edward Lowassa would never face any disciplinary action (which was my position); the other was that 

President Kikwete would never seek any assistance from Mkapa’s  wing(which was the position of my critics)  because he had overthrown them seven years ago. Today, both scenarios are possible and probable. Both these changes show how unpredictable the future is.  At the end of April this year, Lowassa was a very confident man. He had resoundingly defeated Nape and his colleagues in what perhaps analysts have nicknamed it “dubious operation vua gamba”. Yes the Monduli MP had won the battle considering all threats against him which ended in the gutter. Since his downfall as MP, Lowassa has been accused of prompting the so called “gutter politics” within the rulling Chama Cha Mapinduzi. Due to such accusations, the party cadres including Nape and Chiligati were of the idea that CCM should take serious disciplinary measures against the nicknamed “mapacha watatu” Lowassa, Rostam and Chenge to mention them. Among all, Lowassa seemed to be a great threat when it comes to presidential contest in 2015.

As a write, things seem to change upside down giving every sign that Lowassa is going to face something bitter just in a while. Lowassa knows about it likewise his followers do, the new CCM leadership under Philipo Mangula and Abduralhaman Kinana sounds a workable mechanism against corruption and a way forward towards implementation of “operation vua gamba”. No matter how many still trust CCM to date, whenever Mangula is mentioned people are assured that the veteran can do something for CCM.

The return of Philipo Mangula in the party’s leadership proves beyond the reasonable doubt that Mkapa’s wing is at work once again. After 7 years of revolution, the party now tries to restore order and formality. The appointment of Abduralhaman Kinana as a new Secretary General for CCM is yet another witness that the days of “mtandao wing” have not come to an end.

Such a paradox can take us back to political science classes so that we can prophesize the future of CCM. If CCM chooses to undergo “mutatis mutandis” then it will result into the like of “civil war” within the party. If Mangula opts to put Lowassa at stake, it will be setting CCM on fire; it will
mean tearing the party into pieces! But to view the recently increasing unpopularity of CCM through a multiparty, opposition, divisions, or even propaganda lens is to miss its unifying trait. The downfall of CCM is a historical blunder. The misunderstandings, conflicts or quarrels within CCM are separate and yet connected; part of the aftermath of the 2005 party’s election that lifted Kikwete to presidential alongside with his friends popularly known as
 
“Wanamtandao”. It is just a matter of time before history teaches a bitter lesson to CCM, following the same path as fellows UNIP and KANU in Zambia and Kenya respectively. CCM has been left with very little time to deliver or never, 50 years is too long period for people to keep on waiting for a biblical manner!

Nova Kambota is a columnist, reporter and political commentator for Dira Newspaper, he is known through his Swahili column in Dira Ya Mtanzania “KALAMU YA KAMBOTA”. You can mail him to; novakambota@gmail.com, or visit his webpage; www.novakambota.com